Date: August 12–13, 2005 (Crowe’s Analysis)
Location: Seattle (Analysis of Paris, 1905 Archives)
On August 12, 2005, James Crowe sat on a bench in Gas Works Park, documents spread beside him. The city was warm at 75°F, a light breeze rustling the grass while hydroplanes buzzed over Lake Union, preparing for the Seafair festival. In 2005, Seattle thrived: Microsoft geared up for the Xbox 360 launch, and Pike Place Market celebrated another anniversary. But Crowe’s thoughts were in Paris, 1905.
He arranged the documents, using a stone to keep pages from fluttering. His notebook and red marker sat nearby. Reviewing Henri Dupont’s notes, Crowe explored the “Blind Analysis” method, inspired by René Descartes’ 1637 Discourse on the Method, which advocated breaking problems into parts and identifying patterns. Descartes famously coined “Cogito, ergo sum” while seeking warmth by a stove in Germany. The Brotherhood adapted this to teach children to analyze with incomplete data, making educated guesses.
Using his “360 Method,” Crowe pictured the Brotherhood’s classroom. On a table lay a sheet listing 1900 Paris prices: bread, milk, cheese, wine. The five children sat with the list. Henri stood by the chalkboard, his expression cold. “Today, you’ll predict which goods will rise in price in a year,” he said. “You only have this data. Think, analyze, make assumptions. Begin.”
Pierre guessed wine would rise because “adults like it,” but Henri pushed for evidence. Louis analyzed that milk, being cheapest, might rise due to demand and potential scarcity. Henri noted: “Louis—analytical, quick to find patterns.” The method trained children to identify patterns and test hypotheses with limited data, like predicting price trends or choosing investments.
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Sarah Wilson approached, strolling through the park. Her dark hair was tied back, her glasses askew. “Mr. Crowe, you’re working in the park now?” she asked, surprised. “I thought you couldn’t live without the library.”
Crowe smiled, pushing the documents aside. “Sarah, sometimes I need fresh air. But the Family’s mysteries find me everywhere.”
Sarah sat beside him, pointing to the price list. “Planning to open a shop in 1900s Paris?”
Crowe chuckled. “No, but I’ve learned how the Brotherhood taught its kids analytics. They could predict market trends better than any broker.”
A 1980s New York document mentioned 35-year-old Hélène Dubois, a product of the Brotherhood’s 1950s Paris upbringing. During “Black Monday” in 1987, she multiplied her funds by investing in undervalued IBM stocks, her pattern-finding a result of the “Blind Analysis” method. Crowe realized this made Family members masters of prediction.
“These people could crash the stock market if they wanted to,” he muttered, unease in his voice.
Kyle approached, holding a book on economic history. “You’re here, detective?” he asked warmly. “You look like you’ve uncovered something fascinating.”
“Let’s just say I figured out how this organization taught its kids analytics,” Crowe replied with a faint smile. “They could predict market movements better than any broker.”
Kyle sat beside him, eyebrows rising. “Really? So they could’ve gotten rich on Wall Street?”
“Not just gotten rich,” Crowe replied, his tone serious. “They could’ve crashed the market if they wanted to. And that scares me.”
